Serious sports betting is based on mathematics. Anyone who wants to be successful at it must master the basic principles of probability theory. Otherwise, it’s impossible to identify reliable spots where a value bet, i.e., a bet with a positive expected value, can be found. However, this term also contains the problem inherent in sports betting: These aren’t guaranteed values, but rather values that can be expected according to the laws of probability. And as we all know, probability has no memory, just like chance.
This means that even though each of the six numbers on a dice roll has exactly the same probability of coming up, namely 16.67%, that doesn’t mean that every number will have come up exactly once in six throws. It wouldn’t be completely unreasonable to throw a number four, five, or even six times.
However, statistics teach us that the higher the number of throws, the more accurate and precise the results will be. So, if the dice are thrown 1,000 times, we should get quite close to these numbers overall, even though deviations of several percentage points are still possible. However, if we throw a dice 100,000 times, the statistics should have reached a fairly precise approximation of the average values – i.e., the expected values.
And that’s exactly what can easily be our downfall when it comes to sports betting. After all, it may be temporarily unlucky if a series of bets in a row lose, even though they had a fairly high probability of occurring. Overall, however, it should be perfectly clear to anyone with a basic knowledge of probability theory that such streaks of bad luck are just as much a part of life as streaks of good luck.
In today’s sports betting guide, we’ve prepared an essential article for you, showing you how to survive any losing streaks without losing your entire bankroll at non GamStop bookmakers. This can be done by calculating the optimal stake and practicing certain money management techniques when betting on football. We’ll now show you exactly how to do this, along with exploring safe alternatives to GamStop sites that also support effective bankroll strategies and responsible gameplay.
Optimal Bet on Football at Non GamStop Bookmakers – Follow This Formula
So now let’s get to the actual topic of this article: how to find the optimal stake for your football bets at non GamStop bookmakers. And for this, we have a formula for you, although it requires some basic preliminary information. Specifically, it involves the introduction of the term “unit”.
You may have already seen this term in betting recommendations or betting tips at non GamStop bookmakers on this or another sports betting site and wondered what it means. And as you might already be guessing, this is the key to determining your bet amount. If you were to specify that you should bet ten euros on game xyz, that’s a lot of money for an account with a balance of 100 euros, whereas an account with 10,000 euros wouldn’t make much of a difference.
“Units” refers to the betting units you should use, depending on your current bankroll. A scale of 1 to 10 has proven effective. “1 unit” is the minimum stake you should place, which should be chosen for particularly risky bets with extremely low probabilities, while “10 units” is the maximum. This maximum should always be used when the tip is truly a sure-fire bet (or as sure-fire as a sports bet can be). However, for most tips, you’ll probably invest somewhere between “3 units” and “7 units.”
Convert Units to Euros
Let’s now translate these somewhat abstract units into a very concrete amount in euros. To calculate this, imagine one unit as 0.5% of your bankroll at non GamStop bookmakers.
So, if you have 100 euros in your bankroll, one unit would be worth 50 cents. 5 units would be 2.50 euros, and 10 units would be 5 euros. This means: with a bankroll of exactly 100 euros, 5 euros per betting slip would be the absolute maximum you could invest—and that’s only in the most foolproof cases, mind you. If you were to seriously consider it, you would probably place the majority of your bets for 1.50 to 3.50 euros. When you consider that doubling up isn’t exactly commonplace with mathematically correct sports bets, it quickly becomes clear that with a bankroll of over 100 euros, you’ll make very little progress. A profit of 10 euros a month would already be an outstanding result.
Sure, this will dampen your enthusiasm a bit, but it’s all the more important that you fully understand that deviating from this strategy will lead to losses in the long run. Therefore, it’s better to place 20 well-thought-out and carefully analyzed sports bets per month and make a few euros in profit, rather than trying to take shortcuts that simply don’t exist. At least not in serious betting.
Conclusion
In this article, we’ve shown you how to calculate the optimal stake for football betting and how to practice proper money management. One final common pitfall should be mentioned.
Many people who bet on football, for example, plan for an entire matchday. They may specialize in the premiere League or the Champions League. And the weekend or midweek betting program may have yielded three or four playable tips that offer sufficient value (positive expected value). Assuming you have a bankroll of €100 and want to bet all three or four tips with 5 units, you would by no means bet €2.50 three or four times . After all, the bets are placed at different times and not simultaneously – and this also affects your bankroll at non GamStop bookmakers.
After placing bet number one, the new bankroll is only €97.50. And 2.5% of that is now only €2.44. Once you’ve finally placed this bet, we’re at €95.06. 2.5% of that is then €2.38. And if a fourth bet is then placed, we’d have a bankroll of €92.68, of which the 5 units (=2.5%) would be €2.32.
You may find this a bit petty, but it’s precisely this major pitfall that leads to losses much more quickly during losing streaks. If you stick to this units system, you’ll also fall in similarly small increments during the losing streaks described, and then rise again as the probability shifts in your favor as the number of losses increases. In short: anyone who plays this system seriously will only incur more than the 10% loss per month, even during losing streaks, in situations where absolutely nothing goes right. The upside is conversely possible.
We hope that the money management presented here will help you in your future betting behavior to survive those lean periods that no one is prepared for. We wish you much success with your football bets!
